107 resultados para Communicable diseases Mathematical models

em Deakin Research Online - Australia


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Numerous mathematical models have been developed to evaluate both initial and transient stage removal efficiency of deep bed filters. Microscopic models either using trajectory analysis or convective diffusion equations were used to compute the initial removal efficiency. These models predicted the removal efficiency under favorable filtration conditions quantitatively, but failed to predict the removal efficiency under unfavorable conditions. They underestimated the removal efficiency under unfavorable conditions. Thus, semi-empirical formulations were developed to compute initial removal efficiencies under unfavorable conditions. Also, correction for the adhesion of particles onto filter grains improved the results obtained for removal efficiency from the trajectory analysis. Macroscopic models were used to predict the transient stage removal efficiency of deep bed filters. The O’Melia and Ali1 model assumed that the particle removal is due to filter grains as well as the particles that are already deposited onto the filter grain. Thus, semi-empirical models were used to predict the ripening of filtration. Several modifications were made to the model developed by O’Melia and Ali to predict the deterioration of particle removal during the transient stages of filtration. Models considering the removal of particles under favorable conditions and the accumulation of charges on the filter grains during the transient stages were also developed. This article evaluates those models and their applicability under different operating conditions of filtration.

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In this study, the high rate filtration system using buoyant medium of polypropylene or polystyrene was introduced with the study on its performance evaluation via: (i) specific surface coverage, (ii) ultimate specific deposit, (iii) blocking effect and (iv) particle detachment. The filter system was arranged in the downflow mode with an in-line flocculation. Experimental results obtained were analyzed using filtration models. This study showed that: (i) the specific surface coverage increased with the increase in the velocity; (ii) the ultimate specific deposit changed slightly at different filtration velocities and different flocculants; (iii) the blocking effect was significant in the transient stage removal of flocs; and (iv) the detachment model parameter was found to decrease with the increase in the adhesive force, Fad that acts on the flocs (above-micron size).

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Introduction

Unhealthy diets are heavily driven by unhealthy food environments. The International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases (NCDs) Research, Monitoring and Action Support (INFORMAS) has been established to reduce obesity, NCDs and their related inequalities globally. This paper describes the design and methods of the first-ever, comprehensive national survey on the healthiness of food environments and the public and private sector policies influencing them, as a first step towards global monitoring of food environments and policies.

Methods and analysis:
A package of 11 substudies has been identified: (1) food composition, labelling and promotion on food packages; (2) food prices, shelf space and placement of foods in different outlets (mainly supermarkets); (3) food provision in schools/early childhood education (ECE) services and outdoor food promotion around schools/ECE services; (4) density of and proximity to food outlets in communities; food promotion to children via (5) television, (6) magazines, (7) sport club sponsorships, and (8) internet and social media; (9) analysis of the impact of trade and investment agreements on food environments; (10) government policies and actions; and (11) private sector actions and practices. For the substudies on food prices, provision, promotion and retail, 'environmental equity' indicators have been developed to check progress towards reducing diet-related health inequalities. Indicators for these modules will be assessed by tertiles of area deprivation index or school deciles. International 'best practice benchmarks' will be identified, against which to compare progress of countries on improving the healthiness of their food environments and policies.

Dissemination:
This research is highly original due to the very 'upstream' approach being taken and its direct policy relevance. The detailed protocols will be offered to and adapted for countries of varying size and income in order to establish INFORMAS globally as a new monitoring initiative to reduce obesity and diet-related NCDs.

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BACKGROUND: Policies to create healthy food environments are recognized as critical components of efforts to prevent obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases. There has not been a systematic review of existing methods and tools used to assess the implementation of these government policies. The purpose of this study was to review methods and tools used for assessing the implementation of government policies to create healthy food environments. The study conducted a systematic literature search. Multiple databases as well as the grey literature were searched. All study designs and review papers on assessing the implementation of government policies to create healthy food environments were included. A quality assessment of the methods and tools identified from relevant studies was carried out using the following four criteria: comprehensiveness, relevance, generalizability and feasibility. This quality assessment was completed by two independent reviewers. RESULTS: The review identified 52 studies across different policy areas, levels and settings. Self-administered questionnaires and policy checklists were most commonly applied to assess the extent of policy implementation, whereas semi-structured interviews were most commonly used to evaluate the implementation process. Measures varied widely, with the existence of policy implementation the aspect most commonly assessed. The most frequently identified barriers and facilitators for policy implementation were infrastructure support, resources and stakeholder engagement. The assessment of policy implementation on food environments was usually undertaken in combination with other policy areas, particularly nutrition education and physical activity. Three tools/methods were rated 'high' quality and 13 tools/methods received 'medium' quality ratings. CONCLUSIONS: Harmonization of the available high-quality methods and tools is needed to ensure that assessment of government policy implementation can be compared across different countries and settings and over time. This will contribute to efforts to increase government accountability for their actions to improve the healthiness of food environments.

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BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCD) are the leading cause of premature death and disability in the Pacific. In 2011, Pacific Forum Leaders declared "a human, social and economic crisis" due to the significant and growing burden of NCDs in the region. In 2013, Pacific Health Ministers' commitment to 'whole of government' strategy prompted calls for the development of a robust, sustainable, collaborative NCD monitoring and accountability system to track, review and propose remedial action to ensure progress towards the NCD goals and targets. The purpose of this paper is to describe a regional, collaborative framework for coordination, innovation and application of NCD monitoring activities at scale, and to show how they can strengthen accountability for action on NCDs in the Pacific. A key component is the Dashboard for NCD Action which aims to strengthen mutual accountability by demonstrating national and regional progress towards agreed NCD policies and actions.

DISCUSSION: The framework for the Pacific Monitoring Alliance for NCD Action (MANA) draws together core country-level components of NCD monitoring data (mortality, morbidity, risk factors, health system responses, environments, and policies) and identifies key cross-cutting issues for strengthening national and regional monitoring systems. These include: capacity building; a regional knowledge exchange hub; innovations (monitoring childhood obesity and food environments); and a robust regional accountability system. The MANA framework is governed by the Heads of Health and operationalised by a multi-agency technical Coordination Team. Alliance membership is voluntary and non-conditional, and aims to support the 22 Pacific Island countries and territories to improve the quality of NCD monitoring data across the region. In establishing a common vision for NCD monitoring, the framework combines data collected under the WHO Global Framework for NCDs with a set of action-orientated indicators captured in a NCD Dashboard for Action.

SUMMARY : Viewing NCD monitoring as a multi-component system and providing a robust, transparent mutual accountability mechanism helps align agendas, roles and responsibilities of countries and support organisations. The dashboard provides a succinct communication tool for reporting progress on implementation of agreed policies and actions and its flexible methodology can be easily expanded, or adapted for other regions.

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Aim of this study was to investigate the poorly understood relationship between the process of urbanization and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Sri Lanka using a multi-component, quantitative measure of urbanicity.

NCD prevalence data were taken from the Sri Lankan Diabetes and Cardiovascular Study comprising a representative sample of people from seven of the nine provinces in Sri Lanka (n=4,485/5,000; response rate=89.7%). We constructed a measure of the urban environment for seven areas using a seven-item scale based on data from study clusters to develop an ―urbanicity” scale. The items were population size, population density, and access to markets, transportation, communications/media, economic factors, environment/sanitation, health, education, and housing quality. Linear and logistic regression models were constructed to examine the relationship between urbanicity and chronic disease risk factors.

Among men, urbanicity was positively associated with physical inactivity (OR: 3.22; 2.27 – 4.57), high body mass index (OR: 2.45; 95% CI: 1.88 – 3.20) and diabetes mellitus (OR: 2.44; 95% CI: 1.66 – 3.57). Among women, too, urbanicity was positively associated with physical inactivity (OR: 2.29; 95% CI: 1.64 – 3.21), high body mass index (OR: 2.92;95% CI: 2.41 – 3.55) and diabetes mellitus (OR: 2.10; 95% CI: 1.58 – 2.80).

There is a clear relationship between urbanicity and common modifiable risk factors for chronic disease in a representative sample of Sri Lankan adults.

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The movement of chemicals through the soil to the groundwater or discharged to surface waters represents a degradation of these resources. In many cases, serious human and stock health implications are associated with this form of pollution. The chemicals of interest include nutrients, pesticides, salts, and industrial wastes. Recent studies have shown that current models and methods do not adequately describe the leaching of nutrients through soil, often underestimating the risk of groundwater contamination by surface-applied chemicals and overestimating the concentration of resident solutes. This inaccuracy results primarily from ignoring soil structure and nonequilibrium between soil constituents, water, and solutes. A multiple sample percolation system (MSPS), consisting of 25 individual collection wells, was constructed to study the effects of localized soil heterogeneities on the transport of nutrients (NO−3, Cl−, PO3−4) in the vadose zone of an agricultural soil predominantly dominated by clay. Very significant variations in drainage patterns across a small spatial scale were observed (one-way ANOVA, p < 0.001 indicating considerable heterogeneity in water flow patterns and nutrient leaching. Using data collected from the multiple sample percolation experiments, this paper compares the performance of two mathematical models for predicting solute transport, the advective-dispersion model with a reaction term (ADR), and a two-region preferential flow model (TRM) suitable for modelling nonequilibrium transport. These results have implications for modelling solute transport and predicting nutrient loading on a larger scale.

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Novel mathematical models to predict crankshaft pin grinding forces, out-of-roundness and thermal damage were developed as part of this thesis. The models were validated at a local automotive manufacturer's plant. The outcomes of this research have resulted in reduced scrap and warranty costs, improved manufacturing process quality and reduced lead times.